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THE MAXIMA CORRELATION PRINCIPLE ON THE MATERIAL OF THE SOURCES PERTINENT TO THE EPOCH OF STRIFE IN THE HISTORY OF RUSSIA (1584-1619)

This section contains quotations from works by A. T. Fomenkoy N. S. Kellin and L. E. Morozova

(N. S. Kellin, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, senior researcher of the M. V. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Science, Moscow. L. E. Morozova, Candidate of Historical Sciences, associate of the Institute of History of the USSR, the USSR Academy of Science.)

We will show now how the maxima correlation principle formulated by A. T. Fomenko manifests itself in a group of dependent historical texts related to the epoch of strife in Russia (the end of the XVI -the beginning of the XVII century a.d.). We have divided each of 20 texts into per annum fragments, or pieces describing the events of separate years, and then N. S. Kellin and L. E. Morozova calculated volumes of all those "chapters" - namely, a number of words in each "chapter". The results obtained were formalized in a united Table 5.2, where the volume of per annum fragments from 1584 to 1619 is indicated for each of the 20 texts.

Here is the list of the investigated texts:

1) Povest' o Chestnom Zhitii, 2) PovestKako Vos-khitiy 3) PovestKako Otmsti, 4) ZhitieDmitriya (Tou-loupova)y 5) Zhitie Dmitriya (Maliutina)y 6) Skazanie O Grishkcy 7) Skazanie o Fyodore, 8) Skazanie o Samo-zvantse, 9) Povest Shakhovskogoy 10) Zhitie Iova, 11) Skazanie Avraamiya (1st edition), 13) The Chrono-grapher of 1617,14) Vremennik Timofeyeva, 15) Povest'Katyreva (1st edition), 16) Povest'Katyreva (2nd edition), 17) Inoye Skazaniye, 18) Piskaryovskiy Leto-pisets, 19) Noviy Letopisets.

Three more texts were added later: 20) Izvet Var-laama, 21) BeVskiy Letopisets and 22) Skazaniye O Skopine.

Below is Table 5.2 of the per annum fragment volumes for the first 19 texts. The years are plotted along the horizontal axis, and the numbers of texts along the vertical. Years are indicated in abbreviated form: 84, 85, 86, etc. instead of 1584,1585,1586, etc.

All these historical texts basically describe the same events, therefore they are dependent, based on the same fund of surviving information. Table 5.2 shows that correlation between the peaks, i.e., local maxima of volume functions of these texts, is expressed clearly. It is evident that the peaks on almost all graphs occur virtually simultaneously, in particular, in the years: 1584,1587,1591 and 1598.

Now let us consider the result of the second numeric experiment, in which the 19 preceding texts were followed by the three additional texts (see above), with the time limits extended as well -namely, the interval of 1584-1598 a.d. was supplemented with years 1598-1606 - and a table similar to the preceding one was plotted. In Table 5.3, the symbol (•) marks the positions of the local maxima for all 22 historical texts within the range between 1584 and 1606 a.d.

It is distinctly evident that the peaks of all volume functions occur virtually simultaneously, which is explained by the dependence of these texts. Consequently

Table 5.2

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