The SuprasV Chronicle

T jii

-j.

à il 1

i ilb t ,

poor zone

poor zone

The Nikiforov Chronicle

Povest' vremennykh let (Story of Years of Time)

titO

rich zone

The Nikiforov Chronicle

MUMLMajLaiuiriiiiii^niiiiiMMMwi^MMidfelw ikiii il rich zone ^^

Povest' vremennykh let (Story of Years of Time)

rich zone titO

Fig. 5.24. Volume graphs of the SuprasP chronicle, the Nikiforov chronicle and the Story of Years of Time chronicle with the rich and the poor zones emphasized.

corresponding to the period 854-950 a.d., seems to be far away on the plane (a, X) from the virtually coinciding points N1 and SI, which correspond to the pieces of Nikiforovskaya letopis' and SuprasVskaya letopis' of 854-950 a.d., q.v. in fig. 5.23. However, we shall recall that the main parameter for us is a, or the form parameter. Comparing values of a for points PI and the pair of points N1 and SI, that is, simply projecting these points on the horizontal axis, we can see that all three values of a are very close to each other. Therefore, the rich chronicle PI, i.e., Povest'vremennykh let, is actually dependent in relation to the two poor chronicles SI and Nl, i.e., SuprasVskaya letopis' and Nikiforovskaya letopis'. Thus, our method makes it possible to discover the dependency between poor and rich chronicles with certainty.

Example 9. The points P3, N2 and S2 virtually coincide, q.v. in fig. 5.23.

Example 10. Finally, let us compare points P4 and

N2, S2 corresponding to the chronicles describing close historical epochs. We can see that all three points are very close to each other on the plane. We have completely exhausted Povest' vremennykh let.

Therefore, our amplitude correlation principle for dependent texts in their poor zones has been confirmed, - in certain cases, even for the rich zones of chronicles.

2.12. Comparison of a priori independent Russian chronicles

To avoid qualms about the obvious independence of compared chronicles, we shall restrict ourselves to the texts recording time periods after 1300 a.d. only, those close to our time.

Example 11. Let us break up, for instance, Dvinskoy letopisets into two parts: 1396-1498 a.d. and 1500-1600 a.d. We have had no reason to doubt their independence. Turning to fig.5.23, we can see the corre sponding points Dl and D2 to be far away from each other indeed - in diametrically opposite ends of the field filled with points representing the results of our experiment.

Example 12. Let us review Nikiforovskaya letopis' of 1110-1210 a.d. and its segment of 1236-1340 a.d. Although, according to the consensual chronology, they refer to different historical epochs, one cannot assert obvious independence of the two chronicles a priori since they describe events preceding 1300 a.d. Nonetheless, fig. 5.23 makes it clear that their corresponding points N3 and N4 are far away from each other on the plane (a, which probably indicates their independence.

The experiments we performed with other independent chronicles (tables omitted) demonstrate that obvious independence of chronicles manifests itself in a substantial remoteness of points representing them on the plane (a, X).

2.13. Growth of form parameter in the course of time for the Russian chronicles after the XIII century

If we examine the Russian chronicles distributed over the interval between the alleged IX-XVII centuries a.d., we shall see that this effect is not represented in fig. 5.23 with sufficient clarity. However, the situation becomes much clearer if we reduce ourselves to the chronicles beginning approximately from 1200 a.d. and closer to our time - i.e., from the moment when the consensual chronology may be trusted (to some extent, at least). The plane in fig. 5.23 is broken down into segments in accordance with different scales for parameter X. Let us compare the positions of points found within one strip and describing events superceding the year 1200.

Fig.5.23 distinctly demonstrates that for all of three such points found within the fourth segment, -namely, the points N4:1236-1340, S4:1236-1340, Dl: 1396-1498, - parameter a does actually grow over the course of time.

The third segment contains only two such points: N5: 1330-1432, and 56: 1432-1450. As we see, parameter alpha grows over the course of time as well, since point 56 is located to the right of point N5.

The second strip in fig. 5.23 contains only two such points-55:1330-1432, and A: 1336-1374. These values a are very close to each other, virtually coinciding. This is understandable, since the epochs described in texts A and 55 are close by.

The first segment has four points. Only one of them, D2, describes the period after 1200; therefore, it is impossible to verify our hypothesis within this segment. Nevertheless, one cannot fail to note that, if we examine all these four points formally, parameter a shall evidently increase in the course of time as well, although we certainly cannot trust the Scali-ger-Miller chronology preceding the year 1200.

Let us now compare the positions of points N4: 1236-1340, and N5:1330-1432, disregarding the values of X. Point N5 is evidently located to the right of point N4y i. e., parameter a does actually grow over the course of time.

The same is also true for points Dl and D2. Point D2: 1500-1600 is located to the right of point Dl: 1396-1498, and here parameter a grows over the course of time as well.

Finally, the mutual arrangement of points 54: 1236-1340, 55: 1330-1432, and 56: 1432-1450 also confirms our hypothesis of the growth of parameter a over the course of time.

The growth of the parameter a over the course of time that we discovered assumes a natural explanation: the more recent the chronicle, the "more uniform" its volume function.

And yet it is impossible to make an unambiguous conclusion about the growth of the parameter a over the course of time for individual chronicles on the basis of a small number of experiments. Extra research is necessary.

2.14. Growth of the average form parameter over the course of time for groups of Russian chronicles of the XIII-XVI century

In certain cases of the preceding paragraph, we possibly attempted to measure sufficiently rough values "too accurately". Therefore, it is more natural to examine not just various chronicles and their parts, but rather the groups of chronicles approximately related to one period of, say, 50 or 100 years. Then, the average values of the parameter for these groups of texts should be compared. Let us examine the texts

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