O

Fig. 5.25. The chronological shift of 300-400 years and its manifestation in the Russian history. One sees a "shaded group" of chronicles next to each "white group". The gap in time between them equals three or four centuries.

beginning with 1200 a.d. and those closer to us. See the result in fig. 5.25. The points, or the chronicles corresponding thereto, are united into several groups corresponding to different periods of history.

Group of years 1236-1340 - two chronicles: N4 and S4.

Group of years 1330-1450 - four chronicles: N5, S5, S6, A.

Group of years 1500-1600 - one chronicle D2.

In fig. 5.25 it is distinctly evident that each next group is located to the right of the preceding one, which matches the growth of parameter a over the course of time. The only exception is chronicle Dl: 1396-1498, found next to the group of chronicles of years 1236-1340. Thus, the "integration of the picture" causes the effect of the growth of parameter a with the flow of time to manifest itself explicitly enough.

2.15. Growth of the average parameter of form over the course of time for the groups of Russian chronicles of the alleged IX-XIII century

The Russian chronicles found in this epoch are united into several groups describing close historical periods, - namely:

Group of years 854-950 - four chronicles: Nl, Ky SI, PL

Group of years 918-1098 - five chronicles: N2, 52, P2y P3, P4.

Group of years 1110-1210- two chronicles: S3 and N3.

In fig. 5.25 it is distinctly evident that each of these groups is located to the right of the preceding one, which again indicates the growth of parameter a over the course of time.

Conclusion. In the Russian chronicles believed today to date back to the alleged IX-XIII century a.d., and those currently dated back to the XIII-XVI centuries a.d., the parameter a grows evenly over the course of time on the average, which confirms our statistical hypothesis. But the even growth of the parameter a over the course of time discovered by us now makes possible the usage of this effect to establish the correctness or the inaccuracy of the chronology of various chronicles. Let us cite an example.

2.16. Chronological shift by 300 or 400 years in Russian history

Fig. 5.25 vividly demonstrates an exceptionally interesting phenomenon.

a) A group of Russian chronicles of the alleged years 918-1098 is characterized with approximately the same values of the parameter a as a group of later Russian chronicles of 1330-1430. Moreover, for both groups of chronicles the growth rate of a over the course of time is more or less the same. In fig. 5.25 these two groups of texts are positioned in such a way that their projections on the horizontal axis are close by. In this case, the Scaliger-Miller dating of these two groups of chronicles differs by approximately 300-400 years. Thus, we reveal a chronological shift of approximately 300-400 years in the Romanov version of the Russian history.

b) An absolutely similar effect also appears in the comparison of a group of Russian chronicles allegedly dated to 854-950, and a group of more recent Russian chronicles of 1236-1340 and 1330-1430. The group of 854-950 is located in fig. 5.25 between the groups of 1236-1340 and 1330-1430. Consequently, the values of the parameter a for the two groups of chronicles, which are normally set apart by approximately 300-400 years, once again prove to be very close to each other. Again a chronological shift by 300-400years is found in the Romanov version of the Russian history.

c) We see a perfectly similar effect while comparing the parameters a for a group of Russian chronicles allegedly dated to 1110-1210 and 1500-1600. The values of a prove to be in sufficient propinquity once again. We see the same chronological shift by approximately 400 years again.

An important conclusion. Comparison of the values of parameter a shows that our statistical experiment with a large group of Russian chronicles revealed a chronological shift of300-400 years in the Romanov version of the Russian history. Apparently, certain Russian chronicles, and therefore the events described therein, were dated incorrectly. As a result, certain actual events of the XIV-XVI century a.d. "slipped backwards in time" by 300-400 years and gave birth to their "phantom reflections" in the epoch of the alleged IX-XIII century a.d. We shall see further on that this 300-400 year shift in the Russian history is also revealed by means of completely independent methods.

2.17. Conclusions

1 ) A new empirico-statistical model that allows us to statistically recognize dependent and independent chronicles, as well as the statistical principles of information respect and amplitude correlation for the poor zones of chronicles, have been formulated.

2) Our model and both of the principles, namely, the statistical hypotheses, have been tested by a numeric experiment on the material of Russian chronicles. The model and both of the principles have been confirmed by trustworthy and reliably dated material.

3) It allows us to propose a procedure for the recognition of dependent and independent chronicles.

4) We have obtained the following statistical conclusions as a result of our analysis of several Russian chronicles.

4a. A damping graph 1 - F(x), where F(x) is a normalized accumulated sum of the volume function of the chronicle, can be approximated sufficiently well by the function exp(-Xxa) with a suitable selection of parameters a and X. 4b. For the dependent chronicles X and Y, points (ax, Xx) and (ay, XY) corresponding to them on the plane (a, X) are in propinquity. 4c. For the independent chronicles X and Y, points (cxx, Xx) and (ay, XY) corresponding to them on the plane (a, X), on the contrary, are distant. 4d. The parameter a, and sometimes also parameter X, usually characterizes an entire group of chronicles describing events of the specified period. In other words, the parameter a is in a certain sense an "invariant of historical epoch" and its chronicles. This effect may be considered established for the Russian chronicles of the XIV-XVII centuries, i.e. more or less reliably dated texts. 5) Our statistical experiment with a large group of Russian chronicles revealed a chronological shift by 300-400 years in the Romanov version of the Russian history.

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